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Plunging fertility rates - 17th August 2020

Jaw-droppingly low fertility rates around the world mean that nearly all countries’ populations could shrink by the end of the century, according to researchers.

Nations are also beginning to reckon with high proportions of elderly people, with as many people turning 80 as being born. Many countries, including Japan and Spain, are expected to have their populations fall by half by the year 2100.

The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman gives birth to and if the number falls below 2.1, then a country’s population falls. In 1950, women had an average of 4.7 children but researchers at the University of Washington have reported that the global fertility rate had nearly halved by 2017 to 2.4 and is forecast to continue falling to below 1.7 by 2100.

Declining fertility rates can occur due to various factors including better healthcare, a larger female workforce, improved education and greater access to contraception.

The study also predicts that the number of over 80-year-olds will rise from 141 million in 2017 to 866 million in 2100. This raises a range of concerns such as strained welfare systems, delayed retirement ages, changing careers and migration.

Some countries, including the UK, have used migration to boost their population numbers and compensate for falling fertility rates but this is not sustainable if every country’s population is growing smaller.

Policies have been introduced by other countries, providing longer maternity and paternity leave, free childcare, and generous support packages to encourage people to have more children.

Experts say that if these predictions are even close to accurate, migration will become a necessity for all nations and a fundamental rethink of global politics will be crucial for the future of humanity.